UK – BREXIT
Leave 51,9% - Remain 48,1%
- The legal process for the UK to leave the EU will be initiated only once the UK PM informs the Council of the European Union of this decision which will initiate the negotiations between the EU & the UK based on Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon.
- These negotiations need to be concluded within 2 years time and may be extended further if both parties agree to such an extension (in case of unfulfilled negotiations).
- As such, taking into account the many forces in play:
- UK PM resigning – needing time for a new UK PM to be appointment (at best) or even moving the UK towards full scale election;
- Scotland and Northern Ireland votes to remain in the EU – might mean that they will break out of the UK and join the EU;
- The 80,000 laws passed in the UK under EU legislation over the past 45 years - will need to go through re-ratification;
- The UK wish to remain within the Single (EU) Economic Market – in spite of exiting the EU;
- The EU harsh position towards the UK – towards showing an example;
- The leader of the Scottish National Party is planning a new referendum on Scottish independence in order to stay in the Union.
- Sinn Fein is calling for a referendum in Northern Ireland to join the Irish Republic.
- A petition of 1.5 million signatures gathered in the last approximately 24 hours to consider a second referendum must now be discussed by the British Parliament.
- A petition of over 4 millions signatures is asking for the mayor of London to declare its independence from UK.
- All of the above will most likely create a very long and difficult negotiation process with a long period of uncertainty.
- None the less, till the UK (or only England) will actually exit the European Union, it is very important to stress that for the coming years, the UK will remain a member of the European Union and selling to the UK will require compliance with EU legislation.